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October 25, 2008


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Well (and I'm nervous about counting chickens, here) Palin and her crowd will spin it that they weren't conservative and Christian ENOUGH. The actual intellectual/blue blood founders of conservatism will realize their unholy alliance with neocons and evangelicals has splintered like the first Roman Triumvirate. They'll try to reassert control, but their ranks may just have shriveled too much. Still, neocons have had their balls cut off so I can't imagine them controlling the party. And the Christian Right is, by definition, unable to have a big enough tent. So I think the Goldwater types will probably reassert control, in a patriarchal kind of way. They're smart enough to mollify the fish-on-the-bumper crowd, though they know it's a short-time solution.

What will they DO? I don't know. But they will attempt to be as obstructionist as possible and try to make sure Obama can't get anything done. I like to think the Democrats are smart enough not to get blasted like they did in Clinton's first two years ... but this is the Democratic Party we're talking about.

I rather doubt Palin will be the nominee in 2012. And I don't believe the people who think it'll be Jeb Bush, either. I could imagine a "Draft Condi Rice" movement. Romney has a shot.

You know who they'd really like to run? David Petreus.

Christopher Shinn

Howard Wolfson wrote an interesting blog about this at tnr.com -- I think it's titled "The End of Nixonland."

The Tories in the UK have moderated on social issues and become very "green" because they've seen that their country is moving to the left. I think a huge landslide for Obama would show that America is moving to the left too.

How different our nation would be had the Republican party run Mitt Romney as a pro-gay, pro-choice nominee who promised to bring universal health care to the country as he seems to have achieved fairly successfully in Massachusetts? This kind of "right" would make for a far less inhibited "left" in America.

The big question is whether Obama will govern from the left or the center. There are conflicting signals right now. A lot probably depends on the size of his victory.

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